Oil’s Last Hurrah For the Summer

The last hurrah for the summer driving season is finally behind us. 

Lasting between Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends, the summer driving season typically heralds a rise in oil prices. It’s the time of year for stronger demand as we brace ourselves for more pain at the pump as we fill up with summer blend gasoline. 

But even after a solid start of the season with a record number of Americans traveling over the Memorial Day weekend, $100 oil was never in the stars. In fact, WTI crude ended up trading between $70 and $80 per barrel for much of the summer. 

Fortunately for us, lower prices have helped ease the pain at the pump a little bit. According to EIA, the average price for a gallon of gas was $3.36 per gallon, or about 13% cheaper than it was a year ago: 

That’s not too bad… but what else should we expect during a heated election year?

But can we expect this string of good news to continue as we head through the backside of 2024?

Well, let’s take a look at what’s ahead… 

It may not be what you’re expecting, but there’s no denying the opportunities that’ll emerge.

Perhaps the most important thing to understand for the third and fourth quarters of 2024 is that everyone is expecting the supply/demand balance to become tighter towards the end of the year. 

During a period when global crude inventories are well below the 5-year average, The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that demand will outstrip supply during the third and fourth quarters of 2024. 

Go ahead and take a look for yourself:

Click Image to Enlarge

Before we start losing our heads, keep in mind that a lot hinges on whether OPEC+ will begin unwinding its cuts in October. 

The Saudis are going to have to decide if they’re willing to put more barrels on the market. If you’re wondering why they would want to do that when oil is already in the mid-$70/bbl range currently, it could be to try and manipulate lower prices to hurt U.S shale output like they did in 2014, which I’ll add caused crude prices to plummet at the time. 

But hey, the Saudis were willing to shoot themselves in the foot back then to try and save a leg as U.S. production surged higher. Maybe this time they think they can finish the job?

Here’s the catch…

All year, we’ve been talking about how flat U.S. oil production would be in 2024. With a weather-related exception in December, that prediction has come true; our domestic oil output has been stuck around 13.1 million barrels per day for quite a while. 

That’s about to change.

Even though production has been flat, we’re nowhere near our peak — at least not yet! 

Nobody is expecting U.S. oil production to grow like it has in the past, but current projections put our output at around 13.4 million barrels per day by year-end. 

I know that doesn’t make much sense at first, because the rig count has been declining all year. However, you and I both know now that the name of the game is no longer about companies drilling at a feverish pace, but rather at how efficient and cost effective they can drill their wells. 

Today, it’s a game of doing more with less.

The only question left is how soon it will take before you recognize this axiomatic shift in the U.S. oil patch, and whether you’ve positioned yourself before the investment herd catches on.

Until next time,

Keith Kohl

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A true insider in the technology and energy markets, Keith’s research has helped everyday investors capitalize from the rapid adoption of new technology trends and energy transitions. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the Managing Editor of Energy & Capital, as well as the investment director of Angel Publishing’s Energy Investor and Technology and Opportunity.

For nearly two decades, Keith has been providing in-depth coverage of the hottest investment trends before they go mainstream — from the shale oil and gas boom in the United States to the red-hot EV revolution currently underway. Keith and his readers have banked hundreds of winning trades on the 5G rollout and on key advancements in robotics and AI technology.

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